Spatial Representation of Coastal Risk: A Fuzzy Approach to Deal with Uncertainty

Spatial information for coastal risk assessment is inherently uncertain. This uncertainty may be due to different spatial and temporal components of geospatial data and to their semantics. The spatial uncertainty can be expressed either quantitatively or qualitatively. Spatial uncertainty in coastal risk assessment itself arises from poor spatial representation of risk zones. Indeed, coastal risk is inherently a dynamic, complex, scale-dependent, and vague, phenomenon in concept. In addition, representing the associated zones with polygons having well-defined boundaries does not provide a realistic method for efficient and accurate representing of the risk. This paper proposes a conceptual framework, based on fuzzy set theory, to deal with the problems of ill-defined risk zone boundaries and the inherent uncertainty issues. To do so, the nature and level of uncertainty, as well as the way to model it are characterized. Then, a fuzzy representation method is developed where the membership functions are derived based on expert-knowledge. The proposed approach is then applied in the Perce region (Eastern Quebec, Canada) and results are presented and discussed.